Bolivian President Arce Predicts Challenging 2025 Election

Bolivia's President Luis Arce speaks to his supporters and militants of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) during the celebrations for the 19th anniversary of the MAS's victory at the polls and its coming to power at Murillo Square in La Paz on December 18, 2024. Bolivia's ruling party, Movimiento al Socialismo, celebrated this Wednesday the anniversary of its first victory in the 2005 presidential elections and did so in two separate events due to the disagreement between its two top leaders, former President Evo Morales and President Luis Arce. (Photo by JORGE BERNAL / AFP)

Bolivia’s ruling party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), marked the anniversary of its first historic win in the 2005 presidential election on Wednesday. However, the celebrations unfolded in two separate events, highlighting the growing rift between the party’s two key figures: Evo Morales and President Luis Arce.

Nineteen years ago, Morales claimed a landslide victory with 54% of the vote, launching a presidency that lasted until 2019. But today, the political landscape looks very different. The MAS is deeply divided, with Arce and Morales locked in a power struggle for the left’s leadership ahead of the August 2025 elections.

Bolivian President Arce Predicts Challenging 2025 Election
Bolivia’s President Luis Arce (C), Vice-President David Choquehuanca (2nd L), and the president of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), Grover Garcia (2nd R), attend the celebrations for the 19th anniversary of the MAS’s victory at the polls and its coming to power at Murillo Square in La Paz on December 18, 2024. Bolivia’s ruling party, Movimiento al Socialismo, celebrated this Wednesday the anniversary of its first victory in the 2005 presidential elections and did so in two separate events due to the disagreement between its two top leaders, former President Evo Morales and President Luis Arce. (Photo by JORGE BERNAL / AFP)

Morales, now facing an arrest warrant tied to allegations of abuse during his presidency, accuses Arce of spearheading a “judicial persecution” aimed at barring him from the race.

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“They want to break our spirit: ‘Evo will be imprisoned,’ ‘Evo will be extradited.’ But they won’t succeed. We stand with the people, and the people will continue to prevail,” Morales declared on Wednesday. He addressed a stadium packed with supporters in Cochabamba, his political stronghold, many of whom waved indigenous wiphalas in solidarity. This marked his first public appearance since news of the warrant surfaced.

The internal power struggle intensified as both factions vied for control of the party. However, in November, Bolivia’s Constitutional Court formally recognised the leadership aligned with Arce as legitimate.

Despite the courts recently ruling that no one may serve more than two terms, Morales, now 65, remains defiant. He insists he will run in 2025, even if it means doing so outside the MAS.

“I’m already in talks with various party leaders and groups,” Morales hinted, suggesting he could launch a candidacy under a different banner.

Meanwhile, President Arce addressed MAS supporters at a separate event in La Paz’s Plaza de Armas, urging unity and preparation for what he called a “tough year” in 2025.

Although Arce has yet to announce whether he will seek re-election, the party’s leadership, now led by Grover Garcia, one of his allies, appears firmly in his corner. Arce emphasised the need to coordinate with social organizations to craft a comprehensive government plan for the 2025-2030 period.

“We are the only ones capable of defeating the right next year,” Arce told his audience, rallying them to stay focused on the political battles ahead.

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