Opec+ Agrees to Modest Oil Output Hike

Eight members of the OPEC+ group, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have collectively agreed to a slight boost in oil production, adding 137,000 barrels per day starting in November.

This modest increase is designed to help the countries strategically expand their overall presence in the global market while still maintaining stability in oil prices.

The decision, announced after an online meeting on Sunday, comes amid a relatively stable global economic outlook and what the group described as “healthy market fundamentals” reflected in low oil inventories.

“The eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from October’s levels,” OPEC+ said in a statement.

The increase was smaller than anticipated by many analysts, who had speculated that the cartel could raise output by up to 500,000 barrels a day.

“OPEC+8 stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become,” said Jorge Leon, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. “The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment.”

Over the past few months, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria have collectively raised their production quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels per day.

While the group initially focused on keeping oil prices high through supply cuts earlier this year, it shifted strategy in April, targeting a greater share of the global market.

This move puts OPEC+ in direct competition with other major producers, including the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.

The latest decision comes as oil prices face downward pressure. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading below $65 a barrel on Friday—down about 8% over the week—amid fears that larger output increases could flood the market.

The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to rise by just 700,000 barrels per day between 2025 and 2026. In contrast, OPEC remains more optimistic, projecting growth of 1.3 million barrels in 2025 and 1.4 million in 2026.

For Russia, the move is considered manageable. The country currently produces around 9.25 million barrels per day and could reach up to 9.45 million, still short of its pre-war capacity of about 10 million barrels.

“Russia relies on high prices to fund its war in Ukraine but has limited capacity to ramp up production due to Western sanctions,” said analyst Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler.

Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have also disrupted domestic refining capacity, pushing Moscow to export more crude oil abroad.

“It cannot be used domestically, making Russia increasingly dependent on exports,” noted Arne Lohmann Rasmussen from Global Risk Management.