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Nigeria’s crude oil production fell by 3.09% in September 2025, averaging 1.58 million barrels per day (bpd), according to new figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The decline marks a setback for Africa’s largest oil producer, which has been working to stabilise output following months of volatility linked to pipeline vandalism, theft, and operational disruptions.
In its latest monthly production report, the NUPRC revealed that output dipped from 1.63 million bpd in August to 1.58 million bpd in September, including condensates.
The commission attributed the fall to temporary shutdowns at key production terminals and maintenance activities by some operators.
The data also showed that crude output from joint venture (JV) operations accounted for the largest share of production, followed by production sharing contracts (PSCs) and marginal field operators.
Energy analysts say the reduction could impact Nigeria’s revenue projections for the fourth quarter, particularly given the Nigerian government’s reliance on oil exports as a major source of foreign exchange. “Every barrel counts at a time when the government is trying to strengthen reserves and stabilise the naira,” said one analyst.
However, the NUPRC remains optimistic that output will rebound in the coming months, citing ongoing efforts to curb illegal bunkering and improve pipeline security. “We are implementing stronger surveillance systems and community engagement programmes to safeguard oil infrastructure,” the Commission stated.
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that Nigeria remains among the top three oil producers in Africa, alongside Angola and Libya.
Global oil prices have stayed relatively steady recently, hovering around $85 per barrel, providing some relief despite the output dip.
Industry observers noted that the government’s push for new upstream investments under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) could help restore production to pre-disruption levels.
They also emphasised the need to accelerate reforms in licensing, transparency, and technology adoption across the oil and gas sector.
With crude oil revenues still forming the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, stakeholders are urging sustained investment and better management to ensure that production remains stable and competitive in an increasingly uncertain global energy market.
