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Gabon’s revised budget puts a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal at risk, market investors warn, following President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s decision to authorise up to $1.5 billion in Eurobond borrowing to cover an expanding deficit.
Signed on July 17, the updated 2026 fiscal plan slashes revenue projections by 22 per cent. It broadens the national financing gap to 915.6 billion CFA francs, sharply increasing the nation’s reliance on commercial debt.
The news triggered an immediate sell-off across Gabonese international bonds.
Portfolio managers and market analysts stress that prioritising high-yield Eurobond issuance over disciplined multilateral reform will likely stall IMF programme negotiations until late 2026 or 2027, compounding financial vulnerabilities in an economy where public debt already breaches 70 per cent of gross domestic product.
The fiscal pivot comes at a delicate moment as Gabon awaits the final results of a comprehensive public debt audit examining borrowing records from 2016 through 2024.
Rating agencies caution that the review could uncover substantial undisclosed liabilities and unexecuted projects, further tightening local liquidity and straining Gabon’s economic standing within the Central African region.
