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The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) warned on Thursday that the continent faces a fuel shortfall of 86 million tonnes by 2040, as regional conflicts expose deep-seated vulnerabilities in energy and food security.
The pan-African institution’s report, launched in Nairobi, highlighted that Africa currently imports more than 70 percent of its refined fuel. This dependency is projected to rise from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes over the next 16 years, a deficit equivalent to the output of three refineries the size of Nigeria’s Dangote plant.
The ongoing war in Iran has exacerbated these risks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20 percent of global fuel transport, has triggered critical shortages across import-dependent East African nations.
“Not only is it importing fuel, but on the eastern side of the continent, those imports are vulnerable to chokepoints,” said Rita Babihuga-Nsanze, AFC’s chief economist.
The crisis has also crippled the agricultural sector. Despite holding 80 percent of global phosphate reserves, Africa produces only 20 percent of the world’s fertiliser, leaving it reliant on $230 billion worth of imported essential goods annually.
“There’s a real opportunity for Africa to step in the gap here,” Babihuga-Nsanze added, noting that the current fertiliser scarcity is “strange” given the continent’s natural resources.
To address the shortfall, the AFC urged the development of new energy hubs and the optimisation of existing infrastructure. The report cited 2 gigawatts of wasted Angolan hydropower due to poor grid connectivity and the failure of Zambian dams to withstand current drought conditions.
