Global Coal Production to Drop in 2030 – IEA

Global coal production is set to move into a phase of long-term decline, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report released on Wednesday.

The agency said global output, which surged to record levels in recent years, is expected to fall to about 8.6 billion tonnes by 2030 as shifts in the global energy mix gather pace.

The report identified 2024 as a landmark year for the coal industry, with production hitting an all-time high of 9.1 billion tonnes.

This growth was primarily driven by China, India and Indonesia, where coal continues to play a central role in energy security. 

China alone produced about 4,666 million tonnes, a level the IEA said was aimed at stabilising its domestic power supply.

Looking ahead, the agency projected that 2025 would mark the industry’s peak, with global output forecast to remain broadly flat at around 9,111 million tonnes before beginning a gradual decline later in the decade. 

The IEA described this as a plateau that would precede an expected downturn.

The anticipated slowdown was linked to weaker demand and lower prices, particularly in major exporting countries. 

The report noted that traditional suppliers such as Indonesia and Australia have already been affected by softer import demand and declining prices, which have weighed on production.

According to the IEA, coal production trends are increasingly diverging across regions.

In the European Union, output continues on a structural downward path, stabilising at about 242 million tonnes, mainly from lignite. 

The United States, however, has recorded a temporary rise in production to around 473 million tonnes, supported by policy measures that improved mine economics and operational availability.

Despite this rebound, the agency warned that US production is unlikely to be sustained, citing ongoing phase-out policies and rising cost pressures. By the end of the decade, these factors are expected to push output lower.

Overall, the IEA forecasts that global coal production will fall by roughly 500 million tonnes by 2030. 

While India is expected to remain the primary contributor to incremental growth through expanded commercial and captive mining, the agency said this would not be sufficient to counterbalance declines elsewhere.

The report also added that although energy security concerns prompted a production surge following supply shocks in 2021, the market is now adjusting to a future shaped by shrinking export demand and a global shift towards cleaner energy sources.