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Nigeria is standing at a pivotal crossroads in global politics, according to a new policy paper by former Ekiti State governor and ex-foreign affairs minister Kayode Fayemi. As the long-standing dominance of a single superpower gives way to a more fragmented and competitive world order, Fayemi argues that Nigeria has both the credentials and the responsibility to act decisively as a global middle power.
Fayemi’s analysis situates Nigeria within a rapidly evolving international system marked by the relative decline of unipolar power and the rise of multiple centres of influence. In this environment, global outcomes are no longer shaped solely by superpowers but increasingly by assertive middle powers capable of bridging divides, stabilising regions, and shaping norms. Nigeria, he contends, fits squarely into this category—if it chooses to act strategically.
The paper traces the erosion of the post-Cold War unipolar order, pointing to China’s economic ascent, Russia’s military resurgence, and the growing assertiveness of countries such as India, Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Nigeria. This shift, Fayemi notes, has left global governance institutions struggling to adapt, even as geopolitical rivalry intensifies and the risk of instability grows.
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s long-standing foreign policy of non-alignment is portrayed as evolving into something more pragmatic: strategic multi-alignment. Rather than being drawn into rigid blocs, Nigeria has increasingly sought to engage multiple major powers simultaneously, leveraging competition among them to advance national interests while preserving autonomy.
Central to Fayemi’s argument is Nigeria’s long record of regional leadership. From its role in decolonisation and the anti-apartheid struggle to peacekeeping interventions in Liberia and Sierra Leone, Nigeria has repeatedly acted as a stabilising force in West Africa and beyond. Its influence within ECOWAS, the African Union, and other multilateral institutions has earned it recognition as a regional hegemon with continental reach.
The paper is clear-eyed about Nigeria’s limitations. Economic fragility, infrastructure deficits, and persistent security challenges have at times constrained its ability to project power and sustain foreign policy activism. Fayemi argues that Nigeria’s most effective periods of international engagement have coincided with moments of domestic renewal, strong leadership, and a clear sense of national purpose.
The paper places significant emphasis on Nigeria’s demographic and economic weight. As Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, Nigeria possesses immense potential influence. With a rapidly growing youth population, vast natural resources, and a sizeable diaspora that contributes billions in remittances, Nigeria holds both hard and soft power assets that few African countries can match.
These advantages, Fayemi argues, must be deliberately harnessed. A youthful population, if well managed, can become a diplomatic asset in negotiations around labour migration, skills mobility, and global workforce shortages. Poorly managed, it risks becoming a source of instability. The same logic applies to Nigeria’s economy, which must diversify beyond oil to sustain long-term strategic autonomy.
Energy and climate policy emerge as a key test of Nigeria’s middle power strategy. While the country remains heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues, it has also committed to a net-zero emissions pathway and has begun positioning itself as a bridge between energy producers and climate-vulnerable states. Fayemi suggests that Nigeria’s dual identity gives it leverage in global climate diplomacy, particularly in advocating for fair financing and a just energy transition for developing countries.
Technology is another arena where Nigeria is navigating great-power competition. With Chinese firms deeply embedded in telecommunications infrastructure and American companies dominating cloud services, Nigeria has opted for a pragmatic approach—drawing benefits from both while seeking to assert regulatory and digital sovereignty. Participation in regional and global technology governance, Fayemi notes, will be critical to avoiding long-term dependency.
Trade and finance form the backbone of Nigeria’s global ambitions. Despite its size, Nigeria’s trade structure remains imbalanced, with heavy reliance on imports and limited value-added exports. The paper warns that such asymmetries, particularly with major partners like China, undermine industrialisation and weaken bargaining power. Recent efforts to attract large-scale investment into manufacturing, infrastructure and technology are therefore framed as strategic imperatives, not just economic reforms.
Fayemi also highlights Nigeria’s growing engagement with multilateral platforms and emerging power blocs. Aspirations for greater influence within global economic governance structures reflect a desire to shape, rather than merely adapt to, international rules. Participation in these forums, he argues, strengthens Nigeria’s voice while reinforcing its identity as a bridge between the Global South and established powers.
On security, the paper underscores Nigeria’s enduring role as a regional anchor. However, it calls for a rethinking of traditional military-centric approaches, particularly in addressing insurgency and instability in West Africa. Intelligence-driven strategies, regional cooperation, and a stronger focus on human security are presented as essential for sustaining Nigeria’s leadership role.
Ultimately, the paper frames Nigeria’s middle power status not as an automatic entitlement but as a strategic choice. Influence, Fayemi argues, must be constantly earned through coherence, credibility, and consistency—at home and abroad. A fragmented or inward-looking Nigeria risks being sidelined in a world where middle powers are increasingly shaping outcomes.
As global power continues to diffuse, Nigeria faces a defining question: whether it will remain a reactive participant in international affairs or step forward as a confident, agenda-setting middle power. The moment, Fayemi suggests, is already here. What remains uncertain is whether Nigeria will fully seize it.
Read full publication here: Country Report Nigeria .
