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A group of eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have announced a significant rise in oil production for June, defying the current slump in crude prices and raising concerns of further market instability.
According to a statement released on Saturday, the countries will collectively add 411,000 barrels per day to the market—matching May’s output adjustment—despite an original plan to increase production by just 137,000 barrels.
The decision marks a strategic pivot by OPEC+, the alliance of 22 oil-producing nations, which has historically restricted supply to keep prices buoyant. Analysts say the move signals a shift in priorities from price support to regaining market share.
“OPEC+ has just thrown a bombshell to the oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “This is a clear message that the Saudi-led group is changing strategy and pursuing market share after years of production cuts.”
Analysts believe the change in approach could also help mend ties with the United States under former President Donald Trump, who had previously pressured Riyadh to boost production to lower fuel costs. Oil prices have dropped significantly since Trump returned to the White House, falling from around $80 to near $60 per barrel—levels not seen since early 2021.
The group’s move comes despite a recent downward revision of oil demand forecasts, due in part to the global economic impact of renewed US trade tariffs.
The wider geopolitical context may also be influencing OPEC+’s strategy. As discussions surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme stall and hopes for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict fade, the United States could relax sanctions on Iran and Russia, allowing them to increase exports. This may have prompted OPEC+ members to act pre-emptively to maintain their market share.
Internally, the production boost may serve to punish members who have failed to adhere to agreed quotas. Kazakhstan, for instance, has reportedly exceeded its output limits without compensating for the overproduction, adding tension within the alliance.
Experts warn that the sudden surge in supply could accelerate the decline in oil prices, potentially pushing them below $55 a barrel—dangerously low for many producers, particularly in the US, where such prices would render operations unprofitable.
“This is OPEC testing its pricing power,” said Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB. “But it could backfire if prices fall too far.”
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries created the OPEC+ alliance in 2016 to strengthen its influence on the global oil market by partnering with non-OPEC producers like Russia and Kazakhstan.
