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Polish voters headed to the polls on Sunday for a closely contested presidential runoff election, with the outcome poised to significantly impact the country’s domestic policies on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, as well as its standing within Europe.
The election pitted Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski (53), a key ally of the centrist government, against Karol Nawrocki (42), a nationalist historian.
Polls had predicted an extremely tight race. Trzaskowski marked the occasion, which coincided with Poland’s annual Children’s Day, by posting on Facebook: “May it be a good Children’s Day. For everyone.”
Nawrocki, a former boxer, confidently stated, “I will win” after casting his vote, adding that “Poland should be strong, Poland should be independent.”
Voting concluded at 9:00 PM (1900 GMT) in the EU and NATO member states, which have been crucial supporters of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia.
An exit poll was expected immediately after ballot closure, with election officials anticipating the final result to be known by Monday.
Voters expressed divergent views at the ballot box. Agnieszka Lewinska, a 56-year-old cleaner, supported Trzaskowski, citing his education, multilingualism, and intelligence.
Conversely, Warsaw pensioner Lila Chojecka, 60, voted for Nawrocki, emphasising the importance of shared Catholic values. Turnout at noon stood at 24.83 per cent, slightly higher than at the same point in the 2020 presidential runoff.
Analysts consider this election “particularly important” due to the stark ideological differences between the candidates, as noted by politics expert Anna Materska-Sosnowska, who termed it a “real clash of civilisations.”
A victory for Trzaskowski would significantly boost the progressive agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, potentially leading to social reforms like civil partnerships for same-sex couples and an easing of Poland’s near-total abortion ban.
Conversely, a win for Nawrocki would embolden the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed from 2015 to 2023, and could even trigger snap parliamentary elections.
Many Nawrocki supporters advocate for stricter immigration controls and support conservative values, as well as greater national sovereignty within the European Union.
The election’s outcome is also being closely watched by Ukraine, which relies on international backing in its war with Russia.
Nawrocki, an admirer of President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for limiting benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
The final result is expected to hinge on Trzaskowski’s ability to mobilise his base and whether far-right voters will rally behind Nawrocki. In the first round, Trzaskowski narrowly led Nawrocki (31% to 30%), with far-right candidates collectively securing over 21% of the vote.
