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US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held high-stakes talks in Scotland on Sunday, seeking to end a months-long transatlantic trade dispute.
With just days to go before a 30 per cent blanket tariff from Washington comes into effect, both sides described the chances of reaching a deal as balanced on a knife’s edge.
Speaking ahead of the discussions at his Turnberry golf resort in southwest Scotland, Trump told reporters he believed there was a “50-50” chance of striking a trade agreement with the European Union.
He confirmed that the deadline for any deal remained fixed at August 1, warning that all tariffs would begin from that date with “no extensions.”
Von der Leyen, representing the EU in negotiations, said a successful outcome would mark “the biggest deal each of us has ever made.”
The European Commission is eager to secure an agreement that protects a trading partnership worth nearly $1.9 trillion annually in goods and services.
According to an EU diplomat briefed before the meeting, the outline of a deal is already in place. However, several contentious issues remained unresolved and required Trump’s approval.
The proposal reportedly includes a baseline tariff of around 15 per cent on EU exports to the US, in line with the terms previously granted to Japan.
Key sectors, such as the aircraft and spirits industries, would receive exemptions, although wine would not be included.
The agreement must also receive final approval from all 27 EU member states. Ambassadors were updated on the situation during a trip to Greenland on Sunday morning and will reconvene if a deal is reached.
According to the diplomat, the majority of member states were prepared to endorse the terms while maintaining their red lines.
The proposed arrangement would see the EU increase its purchases of American liquefied natural gas and make additional investment pledges. A compromise on steel appears to be under discussion, which would allow a limited quota to enter the US market tariff-free before duties are applied.
However, Trump reiterated that tariffs on EU goods would not fall below 15 per cent. Under current conditions, the EU faces various duties, including a 25 per cent levy on cars, 50 per cent on steel and aluminium, and a 10 per cent general tariff that Washington plans to increase to 30 per cent if talks collapse.
How the deal might affect the auto industry—vital to France and Germany—remains unclear. Carmakers in particular have already been hit hard by existing levies.
A 15 per cent flat rate would significantly exceed the average US tariff on European imports, which currently stands at around 4.8 per cent.
Should the negotiations break down, EU member states have already approved retaliatory tariffs on $109 billion (€93 billion) worth of US goods, including cars and aircraft, to come into force from August 7.
The bloc is also drafting potential measures targeting US services. France and other member states have urged Brussels to consider activating its most powerful trade tools, including legal mechanisms to restrict US companies’ access to the European market and public contracts—a move that would sharply escalate tensions.
Trump, who is pursuing an aggressive overhaul of US trade policy, has pledged to impose punitive tariffs on multiple countries if agreements are not in place by August 1. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday there would be “no grace periods.”
Despite the administration’s bold trade agenda, recent polling indicates waning public support. A Gallup survey showed Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 37 per cent, down 10 points since January.
While the president had promised to deliver “90 deals in 90 days,” only five agreements have been announced so far, including with Britain, Japan, and the Philippines.
