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Ugandans will vote on Thursday in presidential and parliamentary elections expected to extend the rule of President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986.
Museveni, 81, is seeking another term against several challengers, including opposition leader Bobi Wine, a former musician whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi. Wine is making a second bid for the presidency after contesting the 2021 election.
Human rights organisations and international observers have reported arrests and detentions of opposition supporters and restrictions on media coverage during the campaign period.
Kampala has been relatively quiet in the days leading up to the vote, with some residents travelling to their home areas ahead of polling day.
Wine has said he and his supporters face harassment and intimidation and has described the campaign as dangerous. At recent rallies for his National Unity Platform party, he urged supporters to continue participating in the electoral process.
“They cannot abduct all of us. The jails are already full and we are still millions of change-seeking Ugandans out there,” he said at a colourful rally for his National Unity Platform (NUP) last week.
Some voters have expressed concern about a repeat of the violence that followed the 2021 election, when protests over the results and the arrest of Wine were met with a security crackdown.
“People lost their lives, people lost their things, so it frightened us,” Kampala resident Winnie Promise Nantume told AFP.
The elections take place during wider regional attention on governance and electoral processes in East Africa, following contested votes and protests in neighbouring countries.
Museveni is among Africa’s longest-serving leaders and has overseen constitutional changes that removed presidential term and age limits. He has campaigned on themes of stability and continuity.
Uganda has a predominantly young population, with more than 70 per cent under 30. Many voters have lived their entire lives under Museveni’s rule. He is running under the tagline “Protecting the gains”.
Even though one in six Ugandans still lives in poverty, he is still regarded by many as the father of the country, having saved it from political and economic chaos after a bush war against his rivals in the 1980s.
“I hear my parents talking; many people lost lives. It was Museveni that defeated that,” said a former teacher, Innocent, 31.
He said he would vote for the incumbent, adding that, in his view, Wine was “not ready to lead”.
The vote, according to some analysts, is a sideshow. “You could say that these elections are kind of a shadow play,” Kristof Titeca, an expert on Uganda at Antwerp University, told AFP. “The key questions are not the elections but what comes after, i.e., the transition.”
Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the army chief and Museveni’s son, has made no secret of his ambition to rule, as his father’s advanced age compels him to curtail some of his activities.
Kainerugaba, known for his controversial social media comments, has been unusually quiet during the election campaign, but insiders note his control over the security forces, whose presence has been increasingly felt on Kampala’s streets.
Wine remains a thorn in the government’s side, and his supporters remain hopeful. The challenger’s rallies have drawn larger crowds than many expected.
“Very many youths… even other Ugandans, are very ready to fight for our win this time round,” Angella Nabaggala, 23, told AFP.
When Wine surfaced ahead of the 2021 election, the regime was shocked by his popularity. He was subjected to a violent crackdown that was the focus of an Oscar-nominated documentary.
The former singer has kept up the pressure, despite the risks.
“Many of our leaders are being picked up, arrested, and abducted,” David Lewis Rubongoya, secretary-general of Wine’s party, told AFP.
According to Amnesty International, around 400 people have been arrested in recent months for alleged support of Wine’s party, on charges including incitement and property damage.
Another opposition figure, Kizza Besigye, who previously ran for president four times, remains in detention on treason charges following his arrest in 2024.
Polling stations are due to open on Thursday under heavy security, with authorities saying they are prepared to ensure a peaceful vote.
