The UK’s official inquiry into the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has found that approximately 23,000 deaths in England might have been avoided had the first national lockdown been enforced sooner.
The second report of the inquiry, published on Thursday, delivered a scathing assessment of the government led by then–prime minister Boris Johnson, saying its early response lacked urgency and resulted in a lockdown that came “too little, too late”.
According to modelling contained in the 800-page document, imposing restrictions just one week earlier than the eventual date of March 23, 2020, could have reduced deaths in the first wave by as much as 48 per cent.
Inquiry chair Heather Hallett, a retired senior judge, said February 2020 was effectively “a lost month” in which decisive action could have saved thousands of lives.
Hallett added that the delay not only costs lives but also prolongs the need for a full national lockdown.
Had the government acted swiftly, the period of mandatory restrictions might have been shorter or, in some scenarios, avoided altogether.
Despite criticising the timing, the report rejected suggestions that the decision to implement a lockdown was unnecessary.
It stressed that without such measures, the rapid spread of the virus would have resulted in an “unacceptable loss of life”.

The UK recorded one of the highest COVID-19 death tolls in Europe, with more than 128,500 fatalities reported by mid-July 2021. Since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, the virus has claimed over 226,000 lives across the country.
Johnson, who served as prime minister from 2019 to 2022, has faced persistent criticism over his administration’s handling of the crisis, from inadequate preparedness to shortages of protective equipment for healthcare workers.
Giving evidence last month, he expressed regret over the impact of his government’s decisions on children, particularly the “nightmare” of school closures.
The report also highlighted strained relations between Johnson and the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, pointing to a “lack of trust” that complicated the UK-wide response.
The inquiry’s first report, issued in July 2024, had already concluded that ministers and officials were severely underprepared for a pandemic of this scale.
Reacting to the latest findings, the COVID-19 Bereaved Families for Justice UK group accused the government of “catastrophic mishandling”, saying the report confirmed that many victims could have survived had decisions been taken more swiftly.
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