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Following the fall of Sudan’s last army stronghold in western Darfur on 26 October, the United Nations and the Chadian government are preparing for a possible large-scale influx of refugees, although it remains uncertain how many will reach Chad.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), engaged in a brutal conflict with Sudan’s army for over two years, captured El-Fasher after an 18-month siege of North Darfur’s capital, forcing thousands of civilians to flee.
Chad’s communications minister and government spokesperson, Gassim Cherif, told AFP that authorities have established a national contingency plan with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), and the UN humanitarian coordination office (OCHA) to manage the anticipated refugee movement.
“We are mobilising humanitarian stocks and identifying new secure sites to accommodate arrivals,” he said.
UNHCR coordinator Jens Hesemann estimated that around 90,000 refugees may reach Chad in the next three months, though he cautioned the actual number could be higher or lower. Abdallah Abakar Saleh, charge d’affaires at Sudan’s embassy in Chad, suggested a total closer to 60,000. Assessing the number likely to cross the roughly 300-kilometre border from El-Fasher is complicated, particularly as more than 260,000 civilians remain trapped in the city.
In the Tawila displaced persons camp, NGO Solidarites International has registered 6,000 new arrivals since 26 October, according to country director Caroline Bouvard. She estimated that a further 2,000 may have passed through other unregistered access points, and that between 30,000 and 40,000 people could be leaving surrounding towns and villages.
Refugee camps in Chad are already overcrowded and face threats from famine and cholera. Hesemann noted that of the more than 1.3 million Sudanese already in Chad, only 40 to 60 per cent of their needs are being met.
