Voting Begins in US Midterm Elections

Voting in the United States midterm elections has effectively begun, with North Carolina becoming the first state to send out mail-in ballots for contests that could threaten President Donald Trump’s Republican control of Congress.

The November 3 elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats, with the outcome determining how much room Trump has to advance his agenda during the final two years of his presidency.

Democrats have entered the final months of the campaign with an advantage in the race for the House.

A forecasting model from Cornell University has given Democrats an 80 per cent chance of winning control of the chamber and projected that they could secure a majority of about 226 to 209 seats. Other forecasters have also given the opposition party an edge.

The Senate race is expected to be considerably tighter. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats would need to gain four seats for an outright majority. Decision Desk HQ has projected that the chamber could end up tied at 50-50, a scenario in which Republican Vice President JD Vance would hold the deciding vote.

Cornell professor of government and policy Peter K. Enns has cautioned that the forecasts are not definitive and that uncertainty remains.

However, Enns said that given the forecasting model’s strong historical record, a Republican victory in the House would likely mean that virtually everything had gone in the party’s favour or that an unprecedented development had occurred.

“These forecasts aren’t deterministic, there is uncertainty, but given our model’s impressive historical accuracy, if Republicans hold the House, it likely means either everything has gone their way or something unprecedented has happened,” Peter K. Enns said. 

Trump will not be on the ballot, but Republicans have sought to frame the midterms as a judgment on his presidency, urging voters who supported him in the 2024 presidential election to return to the polls.

The party faces the traditional challenges that often hurt the president’s party in midterm elections, compounded by low approval ratings and concerns over the cost of living and the war with Iran.

The start of mail voting has also come amid controversy over ballot handling.

Trump has asked the Supreme Court to allow the US Postal Service to introduce new verification requirements that a federal judge temporarily blocked. An agency whistleblower has also warned that the rapidly developed system could interfere with ballot delivery.

North Carolina election officials, however, have said the state’s mail voting process will proceed as scheduled.

Other states are expected to begin distributing absentee ballots throughout September, while all states must send ballots to military personnel and overseas voters by mid-month.