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Global food prices surged 5 per cent in the two months following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, pushing costs to their highest level since January 2024.
A newly released World Bank analysis reveals that the Middle East conflict triggered a sharp 10 per cent spike in the oils and meals segment, driven by climbing crude oil prices and expanded biofuel mandates in the United States, Indonesia, and Thailand.
While grains recorded a more modest 3 per cent increase due to ample global stockpiles, drought concerns and rising input costs still pushed wheat and maize up by 9 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.
The World Bank notes that the current market shock remains significantly more contained than the early stages of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, when prices jumped 15 per cent in an identical timeframe.
This relative stability persists because Northern Hemisphere farmers successfully secured their fertiliser supplies before the current conflict erupted.
However, the supply route disruptions have severely intensified food inflation across import-dependent nations in South Asia, Latin America, and Europe.
The crisis has hit Gulf economies and vulnerable nations like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran particularly hard, with Iran’s food inflation already sitting at a staggering 98 per cent before the closure.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects a modest 2.5 per cent overall food index increase for 2026 but warns that the UN World Food Programme expects acute hunger to threaten 45 million more people if the disruptions continue past mid-year.
