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Global temperatures remained close to record-breaking levels in April, according to the European Union’s climate monitor, Copernicus, extending a concerning pattern of extreme heat and casting doubt on how fast the planet may be warming.
Despite expectations that the departure of El Niño—a climate phenomenon known for increasing global temperatures—would ease the heat, the world continues to experience persistently high temperatures into 2025.
“This is supposed to be the cooling-off period,” said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, to AFP. “Instead, we’re stuck in what looks like an accelerated phase of warming, and the reasons behind it are not yet fully understood.”
In its monthly climate bulletin, Copernicus reported April 2025 as the second warmest April ever recorded in its database, which aggregates billions of measurements from weather stations, satellites, and aircraft. Remarkably, 21 of the last 22 months have surpassed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels—the critical ceiling set by the Paris Agreement to avoid severe and irreversible climate impacts.
Many climate experts now believe that this 1.5°C target is slipping out of reach. A recent study, although not yet peer-reviewed, estimated global warming reached 1.36°C this year. Copernicus puts the current figure slightly higher at 1.39°C and predicts the 1.5°C mark could be crossed as early as mid-2029 if current trends persist.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus, stated: “Exceeding 1.5 degrees is now virtually certain. What’s crucial is not to resign ourselves to hitting two degrees but to act quickly and aim to stay as close as possible to 1.51.”
French climate scientist Julien Cattiaux agreed that breaching 1.5°C before 2030 is very likely, but insisted that this should galvanise, not halt, global climate action. “The current rate of warming is alarming—tenths of a degree are being surpassed rapidly,” he said. “But we must not let despair undermine efforts to act.”
While the primary driver of long-term global warming remains the burning of fossil fuels, scientists are still studying additional factors that may be intensifying the recent heat. These include changes in cloud formation, levels of air pollution, and the declining ability of natural carbon sinks such as forests and oceans to absorb emissions.
This surge in global temperatures helped make both 2023 and 2024 the hottest years on record, with 2025 expected to follow closely behind. Burgess described the recent years as “exceptional,” noting that while the heat remains within the predictions of climate models, it is at the uppermost limits.
Though Copernicus records only go back to 1940, other scientific tools—like ice cores, coral skeletons, and tree rings—suggest that the Earth is currently experiencing its warmest period in over 125,000 years.
