US Midterm Early Voting Hits Record 48 Million

Nearly 48 million Americans had cast their ballots early by Friday, setting a new record for midterm elections and marking increased participation in several closely contested states ahead of next week’s vote.

Data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab showed that 47,922,669 ballots had been submitted nationwide by midday Friday, exceeding the previous midterm record of 45.9 million early votes recorded before Election Day in 2022.

The rise in early voting has been particularly significant in states with competitive Senate contests that could determine control of the chamber during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term.

In Texas, more than six million people had voted before Election Day by Wednesday. 

In-person early turnout was approximately 50 per cent higher than at the same stage of the 2022 midterms, according to official figures.

North Carolina‘s election board also reported a nearly 37 per cent increase in early voting compared with the equivalent period four years ago. South Carolina had already exceeded its total early vote count for the entire 2022 midterm election by Monday, with five more days of early voting remaining.

In Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall is seeking re-election in a closely contested race, advance ballots were about two-thirds higher than the 2022 figure as of last week, according to the secretary of state’s office.

Figures from states that register voters by political affiliation showed Democrats accounting for a larger proportion of early ballots than Republicans. They represented approximately 44 per cent of early voters, compared with 31 per cent for Republicans and 25 per cent for independent or minor-party voters.

Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist who leads the Election Lab, also highlighted increased participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that provide racial and ethnic voting data. 

He pointed to particularly strong turnout in predominantly Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border.

Georgia recorded another milestone on Thursday, when in-person early voting exceeded the state’s previous midterm record. Women accounted for 56 per cent of ballots cast by that point, while men represented 44 per cent.

Georgia’s top elections official, Brad Raffensperger, attributed the high participation to voters’ confidence in the electoral process.

However, analysts cautioned that early voting figures alone cannot indicate how the election will turn out. 

Party registration does not establish which candidates voters support, while millions of Americans are still expected to vote on Tuesday.

Republicans have also tended to record stronger turnout on Election Day in recent elections, a pattern that could reduce or eliminate the Democrats’ current advantage in early voting.

Furthermore, a rise in advance ballots does not automatically mean more people will vote overall, as some voters may simply be casting their ballots earlier than they did in previous elections.