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Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from Stable to Positive while affirming the country’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at “B”, according to the Federal Ministry of Finance.
In a statement on Saturday, Taiwo Oyedele, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, said the rating action, announced on Friday, reflects Fitch’s assessment of Nigeria’s economic reforms, stronger foreign exchange reserves and easing inflationary pressures. A Positive Outlook indicates that the country’s credit rating could be upgraded if the improvements are sustained.
According to Oyedele, Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared with $32 billion in mid-April 2024. The improvement was attributed to increased formal foreign exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, export earnings and remittances.
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Fitch also expects Nigeria’s current account surplus to reach 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026. The rating agency forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with 4 per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028. The projections are supported largely by non-oil economic activity.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has also reached its OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while increased domestic refining has reduced demand for imported petroleum products and foreign exchange, the ministry said.
Average inflation is projected to fall to 15.4 per cent in 2026, while general government debt is expected to average about 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028.
The government said the assessment reflects progress from reforms including changes to the foreign exchange market, tax measures and fuel subsidy policy. However, Fitch identified inflation, low government revenue and high interest costs as areas requiring further improvement.
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The ministry said the government would continue efforts to increase non-oil revenue, improve public spending and debt management, expand economic diversification and strengthen support for jobs, food security and small businesses.
The latest action follows other rating decisions affecting Nigeria in 2026. According to the ministry, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria to “B” from “B-” in May, while Moody’s revised its outlook to Positive in August.
Oyedele said the government’s longer-term objective is to improve Nigeria’s credit profile and reduce the country’s cost of capital while attracting private investment and supporting job creation.
