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Cross-carpeting has been a cornerstone of Nigerian politics since the First Republic, with the 1951 floor-crossing in the Western House of Assembly often cited as the historical catalyst for the practice.
In the Fourth Republic, this trend accelerated significantly.
High-profile shifts include Atiku Abubakar’s move from the PDP to the AC in 2006 and the massive 2013 exodus, where five governors and dozens of legislators defected from the PDP to form the APC.
Statistics suggest that over 40% of Nigeria’s current top political elite have switched parties at least once, highlighting a system where loyalty is fluid and survival is paramount.
While often criticised, cross-carpeting offers distinct strategic benefits.
It serves as a safety valve for internal party democracy; when dominant cliques stifle competition, defection allows popular candidates like Peter Obi or Rabiu Kwankwaso to find alternative platforms.
For the electorate, this broadens the field, as seen in 2023 when Obi’s move to the Labour Party and Kwankwaso’s shift to the NNPP broke the traditional two-party duopoly.
These moves can revitalise dormant parties, bringing fresh resources, grassroots structures, and increased voter engagement to previously minor platforms.
As the 2027 elections approach, the impact of cross-carpeting is expected to be more disruptive than ever.
Analysts predict a realignment season starting in late 2025, where disgruntled members of the ruling APC and fractured opposition wings may merge into a new mega-party.
This constant shifting makes long-term policy planning difficult but forces parties to remain competitive.
Ultimately, the 2027 race will likely be determined not by party manifestos but by which coalition can successfully “poach” the most influential defectors before the first ballot is cast.
