Ogbonwan: Institutional Dysfunction Threatens 2027 Elections

Journalist and communications professional Osarogie Ogbonwan has warned that institutional dysfunction and the normalisation of electoral misconduct could undermine the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 elections.

Speaking on News Central’s A Place at the Table programme, Ogbonwan said the problems affecting other aspects of governance were also likely to influence the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and the quality of elections.

“The dysfunction that we find in every other aspect of what we describe as Nigeria, which is our lived reality through governance, is going to affect INEC as well. And the quality of elections that we eventually get to experience,” he said.

Ogbonwan also pointed to what he described as the growing influence of political personalities over institutions.

“We have a situation where we have personalities in Nigeria today that are much stronger, arguably, than institutions,” he said.

He cited a recent television appearance by a minister discussing actions taken during the 2023 elections, saying the reaction to the comments illustrated how electoral misconduct had become normalised.

“A couple of days ago, we heard on national television a minister talk about what they did in 2023. And he wasn’t saying it in hiding. He said it on national television,” Ogbonwan said.

“The journalists who were interviewing him nodded along. And the conversation continued like he was talking about the weather.”

According to him, such reactions reflect what he described as the normalisation of electoral fraud and wider institutional dysfunction.

“But that tells me how normalised election fraud is in Nigeria. And that exactly is the institutional dysfunctionality that we have in Nigeria. It’s going to affect INEC,” he said.

Ogbonwan said a credible election should guarantee voters the freedom to participate without intimidation, but expressed concern that voters could still face threats or pressure during the 2027 elections.

“What we want to have as credible elections is an election where everybody can vote, where people cannot be intimidated of voting,” he said.

“But you’re going to see people get intimidated. You’re going to see people get called Iya Chukudi and told to not come out to vote.”

He also questioned whether those responsible for voter intimidation would face consequences, saying Nigerians had become accustomed to overlooking electoral irregularities.

“Those people will not be arrested. You’re going to see an election where the voting process, everybody can see that there’s so many flaws here. But we’re just eventually going to say, ‘Na Nigeria we dey.’ And that’s how it happens here. People would eventually move on,” he said.

Ogbonwan said the same institutional problems could affect every stage of the electoral process.

“That dysfunctionality that is Nigeria is going to affect every single detail of what we describe as elections,” he said.

He further argued that Nigerians had, over time, accepted practices that should ordinarily prompt greater scrutiny, citing a statement by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike about the 2023 elections.

“And we as Nigerians have, in a subtle way, accepted that this is the way that we do things here,” Ogbonwan said.

He argued that Wike’s statement should have prompted a formal review of the 2023 elections.

“Nyesom Wike’s statement that day in a sane, normal environment would be enough to have a complete pause in Nigeria to say, OK, what happened in 2023? Let’s have a proper review of what happened. But that’s not going to happen,” he said.

“Because as citizens, as people, as the electorate, as those in governance, we’ve moved on from such statement.”

Ogbonwan also referred to a reported promise by the Edo State governor to secure 2.5 million votes, arguing that such a statement raises questions about how political parties expect to secure votes.

“The Edo state governor is promising 2.5 million votes. He’s doing that because the audacity to do that, even if you can call it political speak, but the audacity to promise 2.5 million votes tells you that they might have a way that they want to pull out votes and award to the party,” he said.

He concluded that the broader dysfunction he described was likely to extend into the electoral process rather than disappear during elections.

“So dysfunctionality that defines who we are and how we exist as a people, as Nigeria, what we’ve accepted as normal, it’s definitely going to play out in the elections,” Ogbonwan said.

“You would not have every other thing looking bad, but in the elections, we would somehow just have credible elections. That’s not going to happen. And it’s going to happen in 2027.”