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Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will meet in Cardiff on Monday to sign a deal to advance the break-up of the United Kingdom.
According to reports from the Telegraph, the three first ministers are expected to sign a declaration asserting their nations’ right to hold independence referendums.
The summit follows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s suggestion that another Scottish independence referendum could be authorised if there is a “clear consensus” in favour of one.
The meeting also comes two days after United States President Donald Trump said he would welcome a united Ireland.
During a visit to Dublin on Saturday, Trump said Northern Ireland joining the Republic of Ireland would be “a great thing” and questioned how such a development could be bad.
The summit is being held as nationalist leaders increase pressure on Burnham, who has made the devolution of powers in England a key part of his agenda.
Scottish First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) leader John Swinney said the political situation showed that the existing UK arrangement was no longer sustainable.
He argued that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland being led by pro-independence first ministers for the first time was a clear indication that Westminster should prepare for constitutional change.
Swinney also suggested Burnham could be remembered as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom and said independence offered a fresh start.
The political shift follows Labour’s losses in Wales during May’s elections, which allowed pro-independence parties to hold power across all three devolved nations.
Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Cardiff Senedd, with its leader, Rhun ap Iowerth, becoming Wales’ First Minister.
In Scotland, the SNP retained its position as the dominant political force despite losing six Holyrood seats as Reform and the Greens gained ground.
Sinn Féin won the Stormont elections in 2022, while Michelle O’Neill became First Minister in 2024 after a DUP walkout delayed the formation of the executive.
Sinn Fein is widely expected to remain in power when Northern Ireland votes again next year.
The three leaders will be joined by Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin’s president and leader of the opposition in Ireland, at the Cardiff summit.
The meeting will take place at the St David’s Hotel overlooking Cardiff Bay, where the leaders are expected to discuss cooperation on a renewed independence campaign.
They are also expected to sign a memorandum of understanding committing their parties to work together.
The agreement will cover the economy, energy, Europe, international cooperation and self-determination.
The parties are expected to support their nations joining the European Union (EU), with Scotland and Wales joining as new members and Northern Ireland becoming part of a united Ireland.
The memorandum is also expected to commit the parties to strengthening ties with European neighbours as they prepare for potential independence.
On economic policy, the agreement will argue that the UK’s current economic model is not delivering for people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Plaid Cymru is expected to use the summit to seek greater Welsh control over taxation and public spending.
The party is also demanding revenues from the Crown Estate, including the seabed used for offshore wind farms, which currently go to the Treasury.
It wants to replace the Barnett Formula with a more generous funding arrangement and gain further powers over areas including policing and rail funding.
A Plaid Cymru source said the parties had a strong case for practical cooperation on energy, the economy, Europe and wider constitutional issues.
The source also said cooperation between the parties could improve the lives of the people they represent.
“There was a strong case for practical political cooperation on areas including energy, the economy and our relationship with Europe, as well as on the wider political and constitutional questions facing our nations and on the right to self-determination.
“Our parties have much to gain from working together, as partners and as equals, where we share common interests and where cooperation can improve the lives of the people we represent,” a Plaid Cymru source said.
Sinn Féin said the discussions would focus on how each nation could determine its future through democratic means and the will of its people.
The party said the Good Friday Agreement provides a democratic route to deciding Ireland’s constitutional future and argued that preparations for Irish unity should begin now.
“The Good Friday Agreement gives us the democratic means to decide it, and now is the time to prepare seriously for that choice,” they said.
“Irish unity is not a distant aspiration. The work of building the new Ireland must begin now.”
However, Burnham has rejected the prospect of another Scottish independence referendum before the next general election.
In a letter to Swinney on Thursday, he said a referendum was “off limits” and argued there was currently no consensus for one in Scotland.
He also said there was no clear evidence that a majority of people in Northern Ireland presently wanted to leave the United Kingdom.
Burnham pointed to Labour’s 2024 manifesto, which stated that the party did not support independence or another referendum.
He said pursuing independence or a referendum would distract from efforts to grow the economy and help families with the cost of living.
“The 2024 manifesto on which Labour secured its parliamentary majority was unambiguous: ‘Labour does not support independence or another referendum.’
“As I made clear to you personally when we met recently in Glasgow, independence and a referendum are off limits as it would take our focus away from growing the economy and helping families with the cost of living,” Burnham said.
