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Thailand’s former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra will be released from prison on parole on Monday, a move that could reshape Thailand’s political landscape and revive the influence of one of the country’s most polarising political dynasties.
The 76-year-old former prime minister, once Thailand’s most dominant political figure, has been serving a one-year sentence for corruption since September.
He is expected to leave prison on Monday under conditions that include wearing an electronic monitoring device until his probation ends in four months.
Thaksin’s return to freedom is politically significant because his political movement, led by Pheu Thai Party and its predecessor parties, has remained a central force in Thai politics for more than two decades, frequently clashing with Thailand’s military and royalist establishment.
Although the party suffered its worst election performance in February, finishing third, analysts believe Thaksin’s release could energise supporters who still see him as the movement’s symbolic leader.
Political analyst Wanwichit Boonprong said Thaksin’s release would likely strengthen Pheu Thai in the short term because many supporters feel “the Pheu Thai owner is back.” However, he added that conservative rivals are expected to rally behind Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is viewed as having stronger backing from Thailand’s traditional elite.
Thaksin first became prime minister in 2001 and won re-election in 2005 before being overthrown in a military coup in 2006. He spent years in self-imposed exile before returning to Thailand in August 2023.
After returning, he was sentenced to eight years for corruption and abuse of power, though the sentence was later reduced to one year through a royal pardon. Controversy surrounded his treatment after he spent much of his detention in a hospital rather than a prison cell.
Thailand’s Supreme Court later ruled that his hospital stay should not count as prison time because he was not critically ill, leading to his imprisonment last year.
The timing of his release has renewed speculation about whether he will attempt a political comeback behind the scenes, despite public assurances from family members that politics has not been discussed.
His daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, recently said their conversations focused only on family matters.
