ANC Leads in Early South Africa Election Results

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is leading the early results of the November 4 municipal elections, but its share of the vote has dropped significantly as counting continues.

With about 12 per cent of votes counted by 04:24 GMT on Thursday, the ANC had secured approximately 32 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Alliance (DA), which had 31 per cent, according to the Electoral Commission.

A projection by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), based on results from 11.5 per cent of voting districts, indicated that the ANC could finish with about 32 per cent of the vote, while the DA could secure 26 per cent.

However, the early figures may change as more results come in, particularly from populous provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, where several major cities are located.

The elections are expected to shape South Africa’s political landscape ahead of the 2029 national elections and could influence the ANC’s leadership succession, with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s tenure as party leader due to end in 2027.

The ANC’s performance reflects a longer decline in electoral support. The party won 46 per cent of the vote in the 2021 municipal elections, down from 62 per cent in 2011.

Voters were widely expected to punish the governing party over high crime rates, corruption scandals and persistent failures in basic services, including water and electricity.

The DA, the ANC’s main rival, has secured about 22 per cent in recent elections, while smaller parties have increasingly competed for votes.

Major municipalities, including Johannesburg, are not expected to produce outright winners, making coalition negotiations necessary for parties seeking to form local governments.

Parties will have two weeks after the official declaration of results, expected on Sunday, to reach agreements.

Analysts have suggested that an ANC-DA partnership could offer greater stability in cities such as Johannesburg, similar to their cooperation in the national government.

However, the parties remain divided on key policy issues, including racial redress.

The ANC could also consider working with the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, potentially excluding the DA from the arrangement.