Ethiopia’s Armed Groups Unite Against Government

Seven armed groups in Ethiopia have formed an alliance to challenge the government, according to a senior Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) official.

The development comes as government forces and TPLF fighters have reportedly increased their military presence around Tigray in recent months, raising concerns that Ethiopia could slide back into a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.

TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP on Sunday that the groups had agreed to work together to remove the current government and establish a transitional administration.

“We just formed an alliance,” Assefa said, adding that the groups had been in discussions for more than a year.

The alliance brings together Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which is engaged in an insurgency in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region. Four other armed groups are also part of the coalition.

Assefa said Fano leader Zemene Kasse would chair the alliance.

“We think we will be successful,” he said.

The Ethiopian government had not responded to AFP’s request for comment on the announcement as of Sunday.

However, Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, questioned whether the groups could sustain a campaign to overthrow the government, which has access to a significant fleet of drones.

Tronvoll described the proposed campaign as “a sacrificial war for the rebels,” while noting that coordinated military operations across several fronts could seriously challenge forces.

“If they coordinate as a military command, it may make a difference,” he said, adding that the government could potentially face fighting on four or five fronts.

He also questioned how the groups would manage their differing political positions if they succeeded in removing the government.

Past Conflicts

Ethiopia has faced prolonged armed conflicts in Oromia and Amhara, its two most populous regions.

Forces have been fighting the OLA in Oromia since 2018. The Ethiopian government has designated the group a terrorist organisation.

In Amhara, Fano militias took up arms against the federal government in April 2023 after authorities moved to disarm the traditional self-defence forces.

The group has maintained a strong presence in rural parts of the region.

The proposed alliance also brings together groups with a history of fighting one another.

Fano forces fought alongside the Ethiopian military during the Tigray war, while territorial disputes continue to strain relations between Amhara and Tigray nationalists.

Western Tigray, a disputed territory claimed by both regions, has remained under Amhara nationalist administration since the end of the war.

Assefa said the groups planned to address their differences through dialogue.

“We will sit at the table later to solve our problems peacefully,” he said.