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Moody’s Ratings shifted Nigeria’s credit outlook from stable to positive on Friday while maintaining its B3 long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings.
The rating agency attributed the upgrade to stronger external positions, increased foreign exchange reserves, improved currency market operations, and robust economic growth.
Moody’s noted that these sustained trends “would enhance the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks, strengthen economic resilience and, over time, support a gradual increase in government revenue.”
The agency highlighted that Nigeria’s real GDP growth reached 4 per cent in 2025, beating earlier 3 per cent estimates, and projected similar expansion through 2027, supported by non-oil activity and rising oil output.
Additionally, headline inflation dropped significantly to 15.4 per cent in July 2026 from 25.3 per cent a year prior, aided by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary policy.
Moody’s emphasised that continuous reserve accumulation and sizeable current account surpluses “would materially reduce Nigeria’s external vulnerability” over time.
Despite the positive trajectory, Moody’s retained the B3 rating due to low government revenue collection—standing at just 10 per cent of GDP in 2025—and high debt-servicing costs.
The agency indicated that further revenue gains could prompt a full rating upgrade, whereas deteriorating external buffers or slowing growth could return the outlook to stable.
