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Nigerians may face shortages of rice, tomatoes and other staple foods within the next three months due to declining production, rising transport costs and persistent insecurity in farming communities, an agriculture expert has warned.
Rice production is projected to decline by six percent to approximately 8.3 million tonnes, while cultivated land is expected to shrink by seven percent to 4.2 million hectares, according to Alexander Isong, President of the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA).
“Rice is the big one. Production is projected to drop six percent to 8.3 million tonnes. The area planted is down seven percent to 4.2 million hectares,” Isong told the News Agency of Nigeria on Sunday.
The United States Department of Agriculture has confirmed a five percent decrease year-on-year, he added.
Isong, who also serves as Country Director of the Nigeria World Agriculture Forum, warned that tomatoes could face persistent shortages until the late harvest season expected in October. Maize, sorghum and millet are also expected to face supply pressure due to reduced planting recorded in 2025.
Transport costs have emerged as a major driver of food prices.
“Moving a tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos now costs N70,000. It used to be N45,000. On some routes, transport fares have doubled or even tripled. Energy is another killer,” Isong said.
Onions and peppers are already experiencing limited supply in major producing areas, leading to sudden price increases, he added.
Isong blamed insecurity, declining production, supply chain disruptions and inadequate storage infrastructure for the growing food supply challenges. Thousands of farmers have been displaced in northern Nigeria, disrupting farming activities and reducing agricultural output, he said.
“Insecurity in major food-producing areas must be addressed. Farmers cannot produce enough food if they are unable to access their farms safely,” Isong said.
Nigeria continues to depend heavily on wheat imports, with approximately 7.2 million tonnes expected to be imported, according to the expert.
Isong called for coordinated action from federal and state governments, the private sector and development partners to avert the shortages.
“To avert shortages of rice, tomatoes, peppers, onions and other staple foods over the next three months, Nigeria needs coordinated action… This is not a problem that can be solved by one institution alone,” he said.
He identified reducing post-harvest losses as an immediate priority, noting that Nigeria still loses between 30 and 50 percent of perishable produce. He also urged the government to accelerate improved seed distribution, fertiliser supply, irrigation support and affordable credit before the 2026/2027 planting season.
“Nigeria produces enough food in many sectors, but too much of it is lost before it reaches consumers. If we reduce post-harvest losses, improve logistics, secure farming communities and support farmers, we can reduce shortages and stabilise food prices,” Isong said.
