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Higher refining margins, a much stronger balance sheet and favourable currency moves have pushed up Renaissance Capital’s valuation of the Dangote Refinery, according to Divine Olumese, oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital Africa.
Speaking on Newscentral Business Edge on Wednesday, Olumese said the Q3 numbers were a major driver of the revised assessment. She described 2026 as an unusual year, with crack spreads at an all-time high due to the war between the United States and Iran, which has boosted refining margins for Nigerian refineries, including Dangote.
Renaissance’s earlier full-year 2026 estimates, she said, looked conservative against the nine-month results, so an adjustment was needed.
The refinery’s balance sheet also changed markedly. Olumese said net debt of about 1.4 billion has moved to roughly 600 million in net cash. Together with exchange-rate movements, this lifted the valuation.
Oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital Africa, Divine Olumese, says strong Q3 results, higher refining margins, improved net cash position and exchange rate movements drove the increase in Dangote Refinery’s valuation, while future performance will depend on refining margins. pic.twitter.com/yEavlpaPtr
— News Central TV (@NewsCentralTV) October 21, 2026
Asked whether the refinery can keep delivering such results when they depend on external factors, Olumese said Renaissance has only revised its Q4 2026 estimates. Its 2027 and 2028 forecasts are unchanged, which she described as deliberately conservative.
Sustainability, she said, depends on where crack spreads go. Explaining the term, she said a crack spread is the price of refined products minus the cost of crude per barrel.
Olumese said Renaissance estimates the refinery’s future cash flows and discounts them back to their present value. It then adds net cash (or deducts net debt) and divides the result by the number of shares outstanding to arrive at a per-share value.
Renaissance’s valuation is above ₦700 per share. Olumese stressed that this is a fair value range, not a price forecast for listing day. Once the stock is listed, she said, demand and supply will set the price as investors buy and sell.
