El Niño: How the Weather Phenomenon is Affecting the World

Torrential rainfall in India and Nepal, alongside severe drought across parts of South America, highlights the far-reaching effects of this year’s unusually strong El Niño, which is disrupting weather patterns worldwide.

The phenomenon is threatening major crops, including rice and coffee, with the World Bank forecasting an 18 per cent increase in food prices next year.

Here is how El Niño is affecting different regions, according to AFP’s reporting.

Cyclone Lashes India

Powerful winds and heavy rainfall battered India’s southeastern coast after a cyclone made landfall on Wednesday, killing at least three people and forcing nearly 100,000 residents to evacuate.

Rajeshwari, a 65-year-old resident who gave only her first name, described the flooding after arriving at a government shelter near Kakinada, close to the storm’s centre. She said residents were often left standing in floodwater as their homes became submerged.

Cyclones, known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific, frequently threaten communities around the Bay of Bengal and the northern Indian Ocean.

However, this year’s storm season has been heightened by El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with changes in global weather patterns and rising temperatures.

Cyclone Arnab later moved towards Nepal, bringing heavy snowfall to parts of the Himalayas and persistent rainfall through Saturday.

Bolivia Declares State of Emergency

Drought has affected 78,000 families across six of Bolivia’s nine departments and caused the deaths of more than 75,000 cattle, according to a government report released this week.

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency on Saturday to make resources available for responding to the effects of El Niño.

He warned that the phenomenon could cause severe droughts and flooding, calling for cooperation among government institutions to manage the impact.

“This will be a phenomenon that will have very severe impacts in terms of drought and floods, and we need the cooperation of all institutions,” Paz said.

In neighbouring Peru, El Niño has contributed to higher temperatures and forest fires that have killed at least 12 people. It has also created conditions that favour the spread of dengue fever.

Chile, meanwhile, has experienced its wettest October on record in Santiago, with El Niño linked to the unusually heavy rainfall.

El Niño in Numbers

The World Bank expects food prices to increase by 18 per cent between 2025 and 2027, attributing the projected rise to supply disruptions caused by conflicts and the anticipated impact of El Niño.

The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that the phenomenon has contributed to 484,500 excess deaths linked to extreme heat worldwide since June.

The organisation also projects that another 373,000 heat-related deaths could occur over the following six months.

Vulnerable Crops

Rice, coffee and cocoa are among the crops facing potential disruption during this particularly strong El Niño year, although the level of risk varies by region.

Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told AFP that staple foods were of greatest concern because they provide most of the daily calories consumed in countries vulnerable to food insecurity.

Rice production is particularly exposed in parts of Asia where El Niño reduces rainfall, potentially limiting planting and lowering harvests.

Maize and beans, which are important food sources in Mexico, Central America and southern Africa, also face increased drought risks.

Sorghum and millet, which are essential to communities in East Africa and generally more tolerant of dry conditions, can still suffer when rainfall shortages persist for extended periods. Wheat production is also vulnerable to unpredictable rainfall patterns, according to the FAO.

Beyond their impact on local availability and prices, such situations can trigger a shock in global prices for major cereals and send the import bill soaring for countries dependent on foreign supplies.

The FAO is also monitoring export crops such as coffee and cocoa, which are sensitive to both excessive and inadequate rainfall. Heavy rains can encourage crop diseases, while insufficient water can reduce harvest volumes and quality.

Poor harvests could therefore cut farmers’ earnings and reduce foreign exchange revenues for producing countries, while contributing to higher prices on international markets.